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Forecast Discussion for San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 062034
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
134 PM PDT Wed Jul 6 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Gradual warming will begin on Thursday as our deep marine layer
shrinks back to coastal areas under building high pressure aloft.
Temperatures will be closer to average summer levels for the
remainder of the week, and then above average over the weekend.
Areas of morning clouds and patchy fog will continue, but mostly
confined to coastal areas after Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

The marine stratus was a bit more sticky today, especially along the
San Diego County Coast. Weak to moderate onshore sfc pressure
gradients were keeping locally gusty winds through and below the
desert passes, but peak gusts midday were only 25-30 MPH. Most of
the wind-prone mtn/desert areas were around 15 MPH with gusts to 20-
25 MPH. The stratus should clear most of the coast before evening,
but for some areas of the San Diego County Coast, it could be
brief, if at all, before the onset tonight. The stratus will be less
extensive inland tonight and Thu morning, and should burn off a
little better in those areas where it struggled to clear today. It
will be noticeably warmer tomorrow as well, especially inland.


The high amplitude trough that has been anchored along the West
Coast for the past week or so will be retreating as the subtropical
high builds north over the Rockies through the coming weekend. This
will bring more typical summer weather to the region as
temperatures rise to normal values, and eventually above, by the
weekend. The building heat inland will maintain a healthy thermal
low over the deserts, which in turn will maintain onshore flow and
afternoon sea breezes. The marine layer will shrink noticeably over
the next couple of days, and only be supportive of coastal low
clouds and patchy fog after Thursday. Some monsoonal moisture may
make an appearance over the weekend on southerly flow aloft. This
may be sufficient for some clouds over the mountains, but it will be
elevated, and instability doesn`t look sufficient to produce any
shwrs/tstms.

For next week, little change is expected for the first half of the
week, although there will be a chance for our winds aloft to become
more southeasterly. This could transport more monsoonal moisture our
way, but for now, this looks more likely for the latter half of the
week as the subtropical high shifts farther to the north. This is
confirmed by an increasing number of wet ensemble solutions over
SoCal.

&&

.AVIATION...
062030Z...Coast/Western Valleys...Intermittent clearing at San Diego
County coast this afternoon. Low clouds to spread back inland after
00-03Z in San Diego County and 04-07Z in Orange County, stopping
short of inland valleys. Bases will be near 900-1200 feet MSL with
tops to 1800 feet. Scatter out Thursday around 15-17Z.

Mountains/Deserts...Mostly clear with unrestricted vis through
Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Northwest winds with occasional gusts exceeding 20 kt are expected
near San Clemente Island this afternoon and evening. Otherwise no
hazardous marine weather is expected through Monday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...10
AVIATION/MARINE...MM

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS San Diego, CA (SGX) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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