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Forecast Discussion for San Diego, CA

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FXUS66 KSGX 220343

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
843 PM PDT Mon May 21 2018

An upper-level low over Southern California will maintain a deep
marine layer, clouds, and spotty light rain and drizzle from the
coast to the mountains through Wednesday. The upper low will move
east on Wednesday, allowing some weak ridging aloft ahead of yet
another upper low for the weekend. The marine layer will shrink
slightly after Wednesday, but may increase again into the weekend.
Some warming will occur away from the beaches this week, especially
across the deserts, but daytime highs will remain a bit below
average most areas into the weekend. At the beaches...a south swell
will bring elevated surf much of the week.



At 8 PM PDT marine stratus was already smothering the entire coastal
basin, and extended well up the coastal slopes and into the desert
passes. No precipitation was reported from remote rain gages this
evening. The sfc pressure gradients were holding at 8-9 MBS to the
east, but had weakened to around 3 MBS onshore KSAN to Sw NV. Still,
peak wind gust reports were in the 30-40 MPH range at numerous sites
in the mts/deserts, with strongest gusts of 40 to 50 MPH below the
desert passes. The 00Z Miramar sounding indicated a jump in the
marine layer depth with a 3.6 degree C inversion based near 3700 FT
MSL. South winds were indicated below 2K FT. The column was still
cooling below 24K FT.

More drizzle or light showers are possible tonight along and west of
the mts, but amounts will be light. The stronger winds over the
mts/deserts this evening will begin to subside after Midnight, but
remain gusty in onshore wind-prone areas into Tue morning.

The Zone Forecast and Fire Weather Forecasts have already been
updated this evening to remove thunderstorms. Otherwise, no other
forecast changes are expected.

From previous discussion...

The synoptic weather pattern will feature the upper low pulling
east Tuesday, replaced by building heights/weak ridging, followed
by the approach of another trough late in the week with model
consensus showing another closed upper low moving across the state
just to our north this upcoming holiday weekend. So we look to see
gradual, slow warming across inland locales but remaining below
averages for late May. During the upcoming weekend, slight cooling
will occur as the upper low moves inland. For coastal locales,
temperature changes will see little changes due to the marine
layer influence. Cloudiness will dominate along the coast with
perhaps some sunshine occurring during the afternoons with the
best opportunity on Tuesday as the trough axis slides east.
Definitely we are living up to the May Gray theme.


220330Z...Coast/Valleys/Coastal Mountain Slopes...Mostly BKN-OVC
clouds will prevail west of the mountains and along some mountain
slopes with bases 1500-3000 ft MSL and tops to 5500 ft MSL. Higher
terrain will be obscured at times. Patchy -DZ or -RA will occur
tonight and early Tue. Partial clearing possible Tue afternoon.
Stratus becoming widespread again Tue evening with bases 1500-2500
ft MSL and tops to around 4500 ft MSL.

Mountain Crests/Desert Mountain Slopes/Deserts...Decreasing high
clouds and unrestricted vis through Tuesday evening. Areas of west
winds 15-25 kt with gusts 25-40 kt will occur on the desert mountain
slopes and through San Gorgonio Pass, strongest this evening.


No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Saturday.


A long period swell from 200 degrees will build tonight, peaking
Tuesday through Wednesday before subsiding slowly Thursday and
Friday. Surf of 4-6 feet with some sets to 7 feet is expected on
south facing beaches late Tuesday through Thursday, mainly in Orange
County, along with strong rip and longshore currents. A beach hazard
statement has been issued Tue-Thu for the elevated surf and rip


Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


CA...Beach Hazards Statement from Tuesday morning through Thursday
     afternoon for Orange County Coastal Areas.




Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS San Diego, CA (SGX) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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