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Forecast Discussion for San Diego, CA

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000
FXUS66 KSGX 052014
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
114 PM PDT Sun Jul 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure to the south will continue the warming trend today
and Monday. Cooler Tuesday through Thursday as a trough of low
pressure to the north strengthens the onshore flow and weakens
the high. Patchy night and morning low clouds and fog near the
coast will become more widespread and spread a little farther
inland during the middle of the week. For late in the week through
next weekend, high pressure to the east will strengthen and
expand across southern California bringing a warming trend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A few tiny patches of low clouds are over the coastal waters this
afternoon, otherwise skies are clear. Another hot day is in store
for the inland areas, with highs generally around 5 degrees above
normal. As of 1 PM, temperatures were running around 2 to 5
degrees higher than yesterday, and up to 10 in some of the San
Diego County valleys. Not much change for Monday as an upper level
ridge of high pressure remains over the southwest US, weakening
slightly for minor cooling. Marine layer clouds and fog will
remain patchy, with local dense fog possible over the higher
coastal terrain tonight should any clouds make it inland.

Cooler weather is on the way for Tuesday through Thursday as an
upper level trough passes by to the north, weakening the ridge
further. Increasing onshore flow will generate slightly stronger
southwest to west winds in the mountains and deserts each
afternoon, though winds will remain well below advisory strength.
High temps Wed and Thu will be a few decrees below normal. The
marine layer will gradually deepen and low clouds should become
more organized/widespread, reaching the far western valleys by
midweek. There could be a few pockets of dense fog over the
coastal mesas or far western valleys Tuesday morning.

For Friday through next weekend, an upper level high centered
over New Mexico will strengthen and expand westward across
southern California. There are some differences in the placement
of the high pressure which would affect just how much warming
occurs and whether small intrusions of monsoon moisture might
occur. The ECMWF and its ensemble mean are farther west and south
with the high with a more west to east orientation. This would be
a hotter and drier solution for Southern California. It does
indicate some increase in precipitable water over So Cal, however
it is mostly above 600 mb, so would just result in some increasing
clouds but no shower/thunderstorms. The deterministic GFS remains
the weakest/further east for less intense heating and more
moisture, but it remains the outlier with its ensemble mean lying
somewhere in between. Trended more towards EC/CMC solutions with
highs around 115 possible in the low deserts by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
051935Z...Coastal Areas...Mostly clear with unrestricted vis this
afternoon except for a few patches at the beaches of northern Orange
County. Low clouds and fog will return to coastal areas after 06Z
Monday, likely with more coverage than last night. Bases will likely
be around 600 ft MSL with tops to 1100 ft MSL. Patchy fog with local
vis 1-3 miles could develop along elevated coastal terrain after 09Z
Mon. Expect clearing by 17Z Monday.

Inland...Mostly clear with unrestricted visibility through tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Patchy fog late tonight into Monday morning could result in
localized visibility of 1 nautical mile or less at times. Otherwise,
no hazardous marine conditions are expected through Friday.


&&

.BEACHES...
Long-period south southwest swell will continue through tonight
along with strong rip and longshore currents. Surf of 5-7 feet with
sets to 8 feet are expected along the beaches of Orange and northern
San Diego Counties today. Surf will begin to slowly subside tonight
dropping to 3 to 5 feet most areas by Monday afternoon. The surf
will combine with high tides of 6.4 feet to produce another round of
minor tidal overflow at low-lying coastal locations this evening.
Locations which could be affected include parts of Seal Beach,
Sunset Beach and Newport Beach in Orange County, and the north end
of Del Mar and the south end of Cardiff in San Diego County.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory until noon PDT Monday for Orange County
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

PZ...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...SS
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...PG

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS San Diego, CA (SGX) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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