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Forecast Discussion for San Diego, CA

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FXUS66 KSGX 232158

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
258 PM PDT Fri Mar 23 2018


A trough over the West will keep below average temperatures in
place into early next week. A few very light showers or sprinkles
may occur Saturday night into Sunday morning. Any accumulations
will be negligible. Offshore winds possible by the middle of next
week, along with a warming trend and drier weather.



At 230 PM...A closed low was centered 500 miles west of the coast
Washington was producing a showers north of Fort Bragg. Fair
weather prevailed over the southern half of California. Winds were
light in SoCal and temperatures were 4-8 degrees below seasonal

The closed low currently off the coast of Washington is expected
to weaken (filling from 523 DM today to around 548 DM at 500 mb)
and transition to an open wave as it drifts east into the central
Rockies by Monday. This will keep heights depressed in SoCal,
leading to a cooling trend this weekend. Look for afternoon highs
to range from 4-8 degrees below average at the coast to 15-20
degrees below average in the mountains by Sunday. Cooling below
700 mb and a shallow layer of moisture may result in sufficient
instability for a few light showers or drizzle Saturday night
over the coast and valleys. Insatiability will remain present
Sunday night, but available moisture is in question. A few light
snow showers can`t be ruled out for the mountains, especially
Saturday night into Sunday. Any accumulation will be negligible.

By the middle of next week, the forecast hinges on the potential
development of a closed low in the Desert Southwest. If this low
sets up in the right position, there is a potential for Santa Ana
Winds in our northern areas (Santa Barbara east to the northern
Inland Empire) Run to run consistency gives the forecaster some
confidence that this will occur. However this is a finicky
solution with the closed low, so the wind forecast has been
tempered for the time being. Outside of the wind potential, a
warming trend and dry weather are anticipated for the second half
of next week.


232030Z...SCT-BKN020-030 Tops 060 through 01Z Saturday. Tonight: Low
clouds reforming after 05Z with BKN-OVC010-020 Tops 030 through 17Z
Saturday. After 17Z Saturday SKC-SCT030.

Mountains and Deserts: Mostly clear and tonight. Gusty northwest
winds 15-25 kt from 00-06Z at KPSP and KTRM.


Northwest winds increasing late tonight and continuing through
Sunday afternoon, strongest over the Outer Waters with gusts to 25
to 30 kt. A short-period swell combined with the strong winds will
produce hazardous boating conditions, and a Small Craft Advisory
will be in effect for the Outer Waters this weekend.


Skywarn activation will not be needed today.


PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Saturday to 8 PM PDT Sunday for
     Waters from San Mateo point to the Mexican Border Extending
     30 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.




Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS San Diego, CA (SGX) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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