Select NOAA-NWS Forecast Office Text Products
(Product availability varies with seasons, forecast office, and weather.)
Forecast Discussion for San Diego, CA
To Select Another NWS Office Click on Map or Choose from List
![]() |
Select Forecast Office: | Select Product: |
000 FXUS66 KSGX 012044 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 144 PM PDT Sun Oct 1 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system will bring another unseasonably cool day today with isolated to scattered showers ending tonight. Dry and warmer weather will begin Monday as the low pressure weakens and lifts north. High pressure and increased offshore flow will boost the warming trend for above average temperatures Wednesday through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Shower activity continues this afternoon, but has decreased a bit from this morning. Off and on showers will occur through this evening, then diminish overnight. Clouds have started clearing out a bit this afternoon, especially along the coast. Further clearing will continue through tonight as the low lifts north. The marine layer will struggle to redevelop tonight as the low lifts out, so low cloud coverage will be patchy at best tonight. It will continue to be cool today, with high temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below average at the coast and 15 to 25 degrees below average inland. Winds have overall decreased from yesterday, though some gusts to 45 mph will remain through the passes through tonight. High pressure will begin to build over the West Coast on Tuesday, with a remnant low sticking around over Arizona for much of the next week. This will set us up into an offshore pressure gradient, with resultant Santa Ana winds over the mountains and valley foothills. The winds will start out quite weak on Tuesday, then strengthen for Wednesday and Thursday. The exact strength of the winds remains uncertain at this time, but it is currently looking to be a weak Santa Ana wind event. As these winds push over the foothills of the valleys, the airmass will warm up and the offshore flow will greatly increase temperatures west of the mountains. High temperatures today will be well below average, by Tuesday we will approach average, then well above average for the end of the week. Temperatures in the valleys and inland coastal areas will reach well into the 90s, and even the immediate coast will get into the 80s Wednesday through Saturday. This is about 10 to 15 degrees above average for those areas. With the stronger offshore winds, warmer temperatures, and lower humidity, we could see some brief elevated fire weather conditions for late next week. There remains differences in the ensembles on when the offshore flow will weaken, but it appears to weaken at some point next weekend, which would ease temperatures back closer to average. && .AVIATION... 012035Z...Coast/Valleys...Isolated to sct -SHRA through 06Z tonight. then becoming SKC/SCT thereafter. Bases will be mainly variable and between 3000-5000 ft MSL, layered to 7000 ft MSL...but clouds should lower to 2500-3500 feet MSL with tops around 5000 feet MSL and mainly sct by midday Monday morning. Mountains/Deserts...Areas of mountain obscuration in clouds and -SHRA through 06Z tonight. Decreasing cloud cover tonight. Areas of W-SW winds gusting 25-40 knots on the mountain crests and the desert slopes east of San Gorgonio Pass decreasing overnight. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions through Thursday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...Connolly AVIATION/MARINE...Small |
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS San Diego, CA (SGX) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)
Products Courtesy of NOAA-NWS
NWS Information Parsing Script by Ken True at Saratoga Weather - WFO and Products Scripts by SE Lincoln Weather.
Mapping by Curly at Michiana Weather and by Tom at My Mishawaka Weather.