San Diego Weather at Mission Trails, CA

731
FXUS66 KSGX 112010
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
110 PM PDT Sun Oct 11 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Remnants from Rachel will continue to move out of the region today
with isolated showers, mainly along and west of the mountains. An
area low pressure will drop southward across the Western U.S.
through early Tuesday, bringing breezy, cool conditions and a chance
of light showers again over our region. High pressure begins to move
over the Southwestern U.S. for the latter half of the week, and may
interact with an area of low pressure to bring Santa Ana winds along
with warmer/drier weather for all.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Rachel`s remnants brought widespread rainfall across the region.
Valleys and coastal areas west of the mountains saw near one half
inch to over 2 inches of rainfall in total, with mountain areas
receiving 3-5"+ of rainfall. Current radar mosaic depicts light
showers weakening over the area. Low level cumulus will continue to
funnel in off the ocean through afternoon, but most lower elevations
should see a brief lull in the rain. Coastal-facing slopes will see
isolated light showers ongoing.

A 550 mb low pressure over eastern Oregon will continue drop
southward into the Great Basin on Monday and Tuesday. This will
bring a continued cooler and wetter pattern to start the work week
across SoCal. As the low moves closer later tonight through Monday
afternoon, we can expect an increase in coverage in light to locally
moderate showers. The best chance for showers will be along and west
of the mountains. Accumulations will be light, with most valley and
coastal areas seeing less than one quarter of an inch of rainfall.
This system will also bring colder air with it, with 850mb
temperatures falling near 5-8C and 700mb temperatures falling near
-3C. Snow levels will begin to drop further, most likely near 8000
ft, giving some light snowfall to some of our highest peaks late
tonight into Monday evening. Monday will be the coolest day overall
as the weather system moves in. High temperatures will be in the 40s
and 50s across the mountains, with 60s and 70s elsewhere.
Temperatures by early Tuesday morning will be in the 40s and 50s for
western valleys, closer to 60 degrees at the coast. Remnant clouds
and light showers may linger into Tuesday morning west of the
mountains, but mostly clear conditions should prevail by Tuesday
afternoon.

The low pressure system will push eastward into the southern Rockies
by Wednesday, as high pressure off the Pacific begins to expand over
California. This will bring a drying and warming trend with flow
switching to weakly offshore. Temperatures will be closer to normal
for the coastal and western valley locations in the 70s to near 80
degrees. By Thursday, models show a potential area of low pressure
forming somewhere over the Desert Southwest as a ridge amplifies
over the West Coast. The tighter gradient between these would create
a stronger offshore flow pattern, where increased Santa Ana winds
will become possible from the coastal slopes into the western
valleys. There is still low confidence on where the low tracks,
which will help determine not only how strong winds will be, but
also how warm areas west of the mountains and how cool the mountains
and deserts become.

&&

.AVIATION...
111730Z...Coastal/Inland Basin...SCT SHRA/-SHRA through this early
afternoon, then becoming ISO SHRA by around 23z through the
remainder of the TAF period. MVFR CIGs and VIS 3-6SM with SHRA/RA.
Gusty SW winds gusting 20-25 kts (up to 35 kts in the foothills)
through 20z. Otherwise, SCT-OVC clouds based 3-5 kft through much of
the TAF period.

Mountains and deserts...ISO to SCT -SHRA/SHRA in the mountains, and
more ISO for the deserts, gradually tapering off throughout the TAF
period. Gusty SW winds gusting to 35-55 kts over ridgetops, mountain
passes and desert slopes through 03z Mon, becoming more localized
thereafter.

&&

.MARINE...
West winds gusting 20-30 knots expected throughout the coastal
waters through this afternoon. Large fresh swell from the northwest
will combine with south swell associated with Tropical Storm Rachel
and wind waves to create combined seas 6 to 10 feet today. Choppy,
steep, mixed seas and gusty winds will produce conditions hazardous
to small craft.

Calmer winds and seas expected Monday through the work week.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Coastal Flood Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Orange
     County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

     Beach Hazards Statement until 10 PM PDT this evening for Orange
     County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM PDT Tuesday for Orange County
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

     Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for Apple and Lucerne
     Valleys-Coachella Valley-Riverside County Mountains-San
     Bernardino County Mountains-San Diego County Deserts-San
     Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass near Banning.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for Coastal
     Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out
     to 10 nm-Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border
     Extending 10 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...APR
AVIATION/MARINE...Stewey