San Diego Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS66 KSGX 252127
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
127 PM PST Sun Feb 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS... An area of low pressure off the coast will progress
toward our region, bringing periods of light rain and snow, along
with windy conditions. Brighter weather will occur by Wednesday and
Thursday with temperatures closer to average. Another Pacific
storm will impact the area by Friday into next weekend, which will
bring another chance for windy and wet weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.Short Term (Today through Tuesday)...
An area of low pressure we have been keeping an eye on the past
couple of days is finally starting to push eastward after a
stationary experience. High clouds will continue to push into the
area through the afternoon with a low to moderate chance of partial
clearing today. Latest model guidance between HRRR/WRF are still
uncertain on exact timing of the shower`s arrival, but it will
likely begin sometime on Monday morning or early afternoon, where
precip will be quite light to start out. As the low pushes eastward
toward the Baja coast and weakens, showers should increase more in
coverage Monday night and early Tuesday morning. Shower chances
diminish from north to south Tuesday morning, ending early evening
across southern  SD County mountains. Total amounts will be light
with under 1/4" west of the mountains, locally over 3/4" across the
mountains, and minimal amounts across the deserts.

Wind will be the largest impact from this system. West winds will
begin to increase across the desert slopes tonight, and expand into
the deserts on Monday morning. There is a high chance winds will
gust to 40-50 MPH across east-west mountain passes Monday night
through Tuesday morning, including passes along Interstates 8 and
10. There is a moderate to high chance of seeing wind gusts over 35
MPH at times across the high desert. Winds will diminish on Tuesday
afternoon. Please secure any property and drive safely!

.Long Term (Wednesday through Next Weekend)...
A large area of low pressure will continue to form over the coming
days across Alaska. This system will then plunge southward along the
West Coast through the work week and enter Southern California
around Friday. In the wake of the system, zonal flow will occur,
which will dry us out with a few nice winter days on Wednesday and
Thursday. There is high confidence on the next system bringing
breezier and wetter weather, but details on timing on exact amounts
are of course a bit hazier. As of now, ensemble model guidance
begins to show precip entering the region sometime Friday or
Saturday, with wet weather lasting into Sunday or even Monday. Stay
tuned to the latest forecast as we move through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
252040Z...Coast...Patchy low clouds with bases around 900-1300 FT
MSL this afternoon. More widespread clouds developing at the coast
after 02z Mon and moving inland, with similar bases.

Mountains/Desert Slopes...Gusty S-SW winds over SBD Co, peaking
through 03z Mon. Max wind gusts of 30-40 kt. Stronger winds to
develop across all mtns/desert slopes after 20z Mon.

Otherwise, SCT-BKN AOA 20,000 FT MSL through tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Scattered showers will be possible across the coastal waters Monday
morning through Tuesday afternoon.


&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory from 10 PM Monday to noon PST Tuesday for Apple
     and Lucerne Valleys-Riverside County Mountains-San
     Bernardino County Mountains-San Diego County Deserts-San
     Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass Near Banning.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...APR
AVIATION/MARINE...EA

NWS SGX Office Area Forecast Discussion