San Diego Forecast Discussion
413
FXUS66 KSGX 072126
AFDSGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
126 PM PST Fri Nov 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Warmer conditions expected through early next week with a shallower
marine layer and periods of weak offshore flow. Warmest days are
expected to be Sunday and Monday. Cooler conditions expected by the
middle to end of next week. A cooler, windier, and potentially
wetter pattern is expected to develop towards the end of next week
with low confidence in details.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
The marine layer is expected to become shallower this weekend,
becoming more confined to coastal locations. Areas of dense fog are
possible overnight and early Saturday morning. The most likely place
for dense fog development is on coastal mesas and near higher
coastal terrain.
Strengthening high pressure aloft and periods of offshore flow will
bring warming conditions across the area, particularly to the coast
and valleys this weekend. The peak of the heat is expected for
Sunday and Monday when highs will be as much as 12-17 degrees above
seasonal averages. Areas of minor to moderate HeatRisk are expected,
with the highest HeatRisk expected in the western valleys. Weak to
locally moderate northeast to east winds are expected on the coastal
slopes of the mountains and through passes and canyons. Strongest
winds are expected on Sunday when gusts of 30-40 mph are expected in
the favored locations.
An area of low pressure will develop off the US West Coast early
next week and slowly move east through the week. The incoming low
pressure will weaken the high pressure over California and displace
it to our east around the middle of the week. Uncertainty in the
timing of the low pressure`s forward progression continues, with
guidance continuing to trend slower. If the eastward progression
stays slower, that would keep the high pressure and warmer
temperatures over SoCal further into next week than currently
thought. About 20 percent of ensemble cluster analysis solutions
show the high still over the Arizona/California border on Wednesday,
with the rest of the solutions showing the high further east.
Ensemble cluster analysis for next Thursday is showing about 80
percent of model solutions keeping the incoming low offshore, with
10 percent showing the low over California, and 10 percent have the
ridge axis still over the California/Arizona border. It continues to
look more likely that any measurable rainfall that occurs will fall
during the end of next week. The eventual depth and strength of the
incoming low will also have an influence on our wind, temperature,
and potentially snow forecast. Current forecast for next week
follows the NBM with best chances of precipitation on Friday and a
cooling trend from Tuesday onward. There is still plenty of
uncertainty surrounding the details of next week`s forecast so stay
tuned!
&&
.AVIATION...
072100Z...Coasts/Valleys...Lower ceilings of 400 to 1,000 ft MSL
will redevelop after 01Z in San Diego County and after 06Z in Orange
County with visibilities reduced 3 to 5 SM on higher coastal
terrain. Ceilings are anticipated to move in 10 to 15 miles along
the coast Saturday morning. Low clouds will clear inland by 19-20Z
but will linger along the coast through Saturday.
Mountains/Deserts...Clear skies and VFR conditions through the
period.
&&
.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Wednesday.
&&
.BEACHES...
Surf heights will slowly decrease from 4 to 6 feet with sets to 7
today to 2 to 4 feet by Saturday morning. A Beach Hazard Statement
is still in effect through 3am tonight for San Diego County Beaches.
&&
.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for San Diego
County Coastal Areas.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Villafane
NWS SGX Office Area Forecast Discussion
