| LATEST RUC (RAPID UPDATE CYCLE) FORECAST |
| KNKX 9Z MAR 12, 2010 | 0 Hr | 3 Hr | 6 Hr | 9 Hr | 12 Hr |
| Lift Cond Lev (LCL) (m agl) | 1350 | 1231 | 2085 | 3896 | 4057 |
| Lev Free Conv (LFC) (m agl) | NONE | NONE | NONE | NONE | NONE |
| 0-3km CAPE(J/kg) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Most Unstable CAPE (MUCAPE) (J/kg) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mixed Layer CAPE (MLCAPE) (J/kg) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mixed Layer CIN (MLCINH) (J/kg) | -300 P | -300 P | -300 P | -300 P | -300 P |
| 0-3km Vorticity Generation Parameter (VGP) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 0-1km Energy Helicity Index (EHI) | 0.00 P | 0.00 P | 0.00 P | 0.00 P | 0.00 P |
| 0-3km Energy Helicity Index (EHI) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 0-1km Storm-Relative Helicity (SRH) | 65 | 50 | 28 | 40 | 12 |
| 0-3km Storm-Relative Helicity (SRH) | 147 | 137 | 63 | 69 | 56 |
| 0-1km Shear (kt) | 20 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 7 |
| 0-3km Shear (kt) | 28 | 34 | 29 | 23 | 29 |
| Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Supercell Composite Parameter (SCP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Craven Sig Severe | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hail Size (In) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Conv Gust (Kts) | 52 | 10 | 9 | 61 | 63 |
| Best LI (C) | 13.68 | 16.73 | 15.00 | 9.25 | 6.42 |
| WZH (1000 Ft AGL) | -1.00 | -1.00 | 0.74 | 2.15 |
Support For Supercells: S-strong, O-OK, M-Marginal, P-Poor
VGP - Values greater than 0.2 suggest an increasing possibility of tornadic storms
STP - Values greater than 1 suggest an increasing possibility of tornadic storms
SCP - Values greater than 1 suggest an increasing possibility of supercells and
tornadic storms
Craven Sig Severe - Values greater than 20 suggest an increasing possibility of
sig severe storms
| LATEST RUC MODEL RUN FOR KNKX | ||||||||||
| TIME (Z) | 1100 | 1200 | 1300 | 1400 | 1500 | 1600 | 1700 | 1800 | 1900 | 2000 |
| SHOWALTER INDEX | 13.61 | 13.42 | 13.55 | 13.57 | 12.97 | 12.83 | 12.11 | 11.88 | 11.79 | 11.79 |
| LIFTED INDEX | 15.35 | 15.35 | 15.35 | 15.02 | 14.70 | 14.44 | 13.67 | 12.30 | 10.00 | 8.33 |
| SWEAT INDEX | 26.33 | 25.93 | 26.49 | 35.15 | 40.38 | 41.79 | 43.35 | 46.63 | 49.91 | 51.99 |
| K INDEX | -8.62 | -7.75 | -7.54 | -6.37 | -4.91 | -4.24 | -2.74 | -1.93 | -1.72 | -0.89 |
| TOTALS TOTAL INDEX | 26.24 | 26.72 | 26.56 | 27.13 | 28.09 | 28.55 | 29.93 | 30.54 | 30.58 | 30.86 |
| LCL HEIGHT (Ft) | 2137 | 1829 | 1836 | 1893 | 2216 | 3857 | 5022 | 5810 | 6258 | 5885 |
| LCL PRESSURE | 962.17 | 979.30 | 978.92 | 975.67 | 957.94 | 881.39 | 835.93 | 807.96 | 792.83 | 805.36 |
| LCL TEMP (in C) | 3.35 | 3.6 | 3.28 | 2.86 | 2.51 | 0.47999999999996 | -0.47000000000003 | -0.73000000000002 | -0.66000000000003 | 1.27 |
| PRECIP WATER (in) | 0.43 | 0.44 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.46 | 0.49 | 0.53 |
| CAPE | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| CINS | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EQ LEVEL (Ft) | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| LFC (Ft) | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BULK RICHARDSON | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| STORM REL HEL (m/s) | 40.90 | 58.10 | 53.00 | 35.40 | 22.40 | 20.70 | 8.20 | -5.20 | -0.90 | 18.40 |
| STORM MOTION | 307 at 17 | 303 at 16 | 304 at 17 | 307 at 17 | 311 at 16 | 314 at 15 | 313 at 15 | 314 at 15 | 312 at 16 | 305 at 18 |
| ENERGY HELICITY(EHI) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0 | -0 | 0 |
| 1 KM SHEAR | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 12 |
| 3 KM SHEAR | 11 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 7 |
| 6 KM SHEAR | 25 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 27 | 27 | 25 | 22 | 20 | 19 |
| UP VERT VELOCITY (m/s) | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WBZ (Ft) | 4529 | 4037 | 4017 | 4274 | 4276 | 4289 | 5374 | 5846 | 6747 | 6797 |
| CRAVEN SIG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SCP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -0 | -0 | 0 |
| LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING REPORT |
| Station: KNKX Date: 0000Z 12 MAR 10 | ||
| 1000-500 Mb Thickness (Ft) | 18263.04 | |
| Freezing Level (Ft) | 12160 | |
| Wet Bulb Zero (Ft) | 5205 | SMALL HAIL |
| Precipitable Water (Inches) | 0.36 | |
| Sfc-500 Mean Rel Humidity (%) | 22 | |
| 700-500 Lapse Rate (C/km) | 7.25 | |
| ThetaE Index (C/km) | 4.88 | |
| Lifted Index (C) | 13.18 | STABLE ATMOSPHERE |
| Showalter Index (C) | 11.54 | NO THUNDERSTORMS |
| Total Totals Index | 33.8 | NO CONVECTION LIKELY |
| K Index | -7.3 | NO THUNDERSTORMS |
| Sweat Index | 25 | NO SEVERE WEATHER |
| Energy Index | 2.92 | NO ACTIVITY EXPECTED |
| CAPE (B+) (J/Kg) | 4.81 | |
| NCAPE (B+) (J/Kg) | NA | |
| Max Up Vert Vel (m/s) | 3.1 | |
| CIN (B-) (J/Kg) | 59461.18 | |
| CAP Strength (C) | 13.91 | STRONG CAP |
| Lift Cond Lev (LCL) (Ft) | 7503.84 | |
| Lev Free Conv (LFC) (Ft) | -9999 | |
| Equalibrium Lev (EL) (Ft) | -9999 | |
| Storm Direction | 356.8 at 8.3 knts | |
| Shear (0-3Km) (10-3/s) | 1.5 | |
| Storm Rel Helicity (0-3Km) | -57.3 | NONE TO VERY WEAK HELICAL FLOW |
| Storm Rel Vorticity (0-3Km) | -4.9 | |
| Energy-Hel Index | 0 | SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES UNLIKELY |
| BULK Richardson | 0.9 | INSUFFICIENT SHEAR AND/OR CAPE VALUES |
| BULK Shear (m/s) | 5.37 | |
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ESPERANZA WEATHER CENTER
www.espwxctr.com