| LATEST RUC (RAPID UPDATE CYCLE) FORECAST |
| KNKX 12Z JUL 29, 2010 | 0 Hr | 3 Hr | 6 Hr | 9 Hr | 12 Hr |
| Lift Cond Lev (LCL) (m agl) | 412 | 604 | 940 | 848 | 714 |
| Lev Free Conv (LFC) (m agl) | 2571 | 2019 | 1016 | 893 | 1211 |
| 0-3km CAPE(J/kg) | NONE | NONE | 172 | 248 | 218 |
| Most Unstable CAPE (MUCAPE) (J/kg) | 562 | 1168 | 1840 | 2557 | 3074 |
| Mixed Layer CAPE (MLCAPE) (J/kg) | 135 | 154 | 926 | 1422 | 1471 |
| Mixed Layer CIN (MLCINH) (J/kg) | -136 M | -115 M | -5 S | -3 S | -16 S |
| 0-3km Vorticity Generation Parameter (VGP) | 0.13 | 0.21 | 0.16 | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| 0-1km Energy Helicity Index (EHI) | 0.01 P | 0.04 P | 0.04 P | 0.04 P | 0.06 P |
| 0-3km Energy Helicity Index (EHI) | 0.09 | -0.05 | 0.23 | 0.44 | 0.18 |
| 0-1km Storm-Relative Helicity (SRH) | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 0-3km Storm-Relative Helicity (SRH) | 133 | 76 | 36 | 36 | 42 |
| 0-1km Shear (kt) | 15 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 0-3km Shear (kt) | 7 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
| Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Supercell Composite Parameter (SCP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Craven Sig Severe | 1.41 | 0.85 | 5.22 | 8.04 | 8.92 |
| Hail Size (In) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| Conv Gust (Kts) | 47 | 47 | 45 | 46 | 48 |
| Best LI (C) | -1.12 | -3.13 | -4.63 | -5.52 | -5.45 |
| WZH (1000 Ft AGL) | 11.00 | 11.09 | 11.18 | 11.20 |
Support For Supercells: S-strong, O-OK, M-Marginal, P-Poor
VGP - Values greater than 0.2 suggest an increasing possibility of tornadic storms
STP - Values greater than 1 suggest an increasing possibility of tornadic storms
SCP - Values greater than 1 suggest an increasing possibility of supercells and
tornadic storms
Craven Sig Severe - Values greater than 20 suggest an increasing possibility of
sig severe storms
| LATEST RUC MODEL RUN FOR KNKX | ||||||||||
| TIME (Z) | 1300 | 1400 | 1500 | 1600 | 1700 | 1800 | 1900 | 2000 | 2100 | 2200 |
| SHOWALTER INDEX | 7.97 | 7.70 | 4.26 | 2.92 | 0.74 | 16.45 | 15.76 | 14.91 | 14.64 | 14.49 |
| LIFTED INDEX | 12.03 | 13.23 | 13.75 | 13.91 | 14.27 | 13.33 | 13.18 | 12.66 | 12.65 | 13.07 |
| SWEAT INDEX | 32.77 | 24.04 | 21.86 | 20.10 | 21.07 | 21.10 | 19.29 | 19.66 | 20.97 | 24.52 |
| K INDEX | -3.27 | -4.78 | -3.75 | -5.60 | -5.38 | -1.89 | 2.24 | 5.89 | 8.67 | 10.72 |
| TOTALS TOTAL INDEX | 10.03 | 10.25 | 13.29 | 13.43 | 13.58 | 16.28 | 18.30 | 20.43 | 21.06 | 21.26 |
| LCL HEIGHT (Ft) | 1871 | 1996 | 2658 | 3528 | 4300 | 4811 | 5646 | 6289 | 6304 | 6022 |
| LCL PRESSURE | 976.91 | 969.88 | 935.38 | 895.35 | 863.47 | 843.80 | 813.62 | 791.79 | 791.29 | 800.71 |
| LCL TEMP (in C) | 12.56 | 12.88 | 12.08 | 11.4 | 10.71 | 10.79 | 9.99 | 9.36 | 9.26 | 9.27 |
| PRECIP WATER (in) | 1.16 | 1.05 | 0.99 | 0.97 | 0.96 | 0.97 | 0.97 | 1 | 1.04 | 1.07 |
| CAPE | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| CINS | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EQ LEVEL (Ft) | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| LFC (Ft) | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BULK RICHARDSON | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| STORM REL HEL (m/s) | -102.00 | -131.10 | -134.20 | -96.50 | -75.90 | -67.80 | -66.50 | -17.30 | 3.80 | 12.20 |
| STORM MOTION | 263 at 15 | 279 at 12 | 266 at 13 | 255 at 14 | 250 at 13 | 259 at 12 | 279 at 10 | 252 at 11 | 207 at 16 | 190 at 17 |
| ENERGY HELICITY(EHI) | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 KM SHEAR | 14 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 9 |
| 3 KM SHEAR | 9 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 19 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 22 | 25 |
| 6 KM SHEAR | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 7 |
| UP VERT VELOCITY (m/s) | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WBZ (Ft) | 15244 | 15253 | 15485 | 15705 | 15402 | 15402 | 14972 | 14481 | 14440 | 14418 |
| CRAVEN SIG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SCP | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | 0 | 0 |
| LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING REPORT |
| Station: KNKX Date: 1200Z 29 JUL 10 | ||
| 1000-500 Mb Thickness (Ft) | 18971.52 | |
| Freezing Level (Ft) | 17826 | |
| Wet Bulb Zero (Ft) | 14957 | HAIL UNLIKELY |
| Precipitable Water (Inches) | 1.19 | |
| Sfc-500 Mean Rel Humidity (%) | 63 | |
| 700-500 Lapse Rate (C/km) | 5.06 | |
| ThetaE Index (C/km) | 23.2 | |
| Lifted Index (C) | 11.44 | STABLE ATMOSPHERE |
| Showalter Index (C) | 16.32 | NO THUNDERSTORMS |
| Total Totals Index | 12.89 | NO CONVECTION LIKELY |
| K Index | 2.99 | NO THUNDERSTORMS |
| Sweat Index | 12 | NO SEVERE WEATHER |
| Energy Index | 3.43 | NO ACTIVITY EXPECTED |
| CAPE (B+) (J/Kg) | 66.63 | |
| NCAPE (B+) (J/Kg) | NA | |
| Max Up Vert Vel (m/s) | 11.54 | |
| CIN (B-) (J/Kg) | 49615.23 | |
| CAP Strength (C) | 12.69 | STRONG CAP |
| Lift Cond Lev (LCL) (Ft) | 2894.55 | |
| Lev Free Conv (LFC) (Ft) | -9999 | |
| Equalibrium Lev (EL) (Ft) | -9999 | |
| Storm Direction | ||
| Shear (0-3Km) (10-3/s) | ||
| Storm Rel Helicity (0-3Km) | NONE TO VERY WEAK HELICAL FLOW | |
| Storm Rel Vorticity (0-3Km) | ||
| Energy-Hel Index | -4.16 | SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES UNLIKELY |
| BULK Richardson | INSUFFICIENT SHEAR AND/OR CAPE VALUES | |
| BULK Shear (m/s) | ||
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PHP Script Developed By Jim Wyman
ESPERANZA WEATHER CENTER
www.espwxctr.com