| LATEST RUC (RAPID UPDATE CYCLE) FORECAST |
| KNKX 18Z MAR 20, 2010 | 0 Hr | 3 Hr | 6 Hr | 9 Hr | 12 Hr |
| Lift Cond Lev (LCL) (m agl) | 1365 | 1398 | 1524 | 944 | 532 |
| Lev Free Conv (LFC) (m agl) | NONE | NONE | NONE | NONE | NONE |
| 0-3km CAPE(J/kg) | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Most Unstable CAPE (MUCAPE) (J/kg) | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mixed Layer CAPE (MLCAPE) (J/kg) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mixed Layer CIN (MLCINH) (J/kg) | -300 P | -300 P | -300 P | -300 P | -153 P |
| 0-3km Vorticity Generation Parameter (VGP) | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 0-1km Energy Helicity Index (EHI) | 0.00 P | 0.00 P | 0.00 P | 0.00 P | 0.00 P |
| 0-3km Energy Helicity Index (EHI) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| 0-1km Storm-Relative Helicity (SRH) | 18 | 30 | 39 | 81 | 127 |
| 0-3km Storm-Relative Helicity (SRH) | 187 | 224 | 256 | 310 | 195 |
| 0-1km Shear (kt) | 8 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 17 |
| 0-3km Shear (kt) | 30 | 39 | 45 | 47 | 47 |
| Significant Tornado Parameter (STP) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Supercell Composite Parameter (SCP) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Craven Sig Severe | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hail Size (In) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Conv Gust (Kts) | 27 | 41 | 41 | 36 | 39 |
| Best LI (C) | 7.02 | 5.07 | 7.25 | 13.86 | 15.85 |
| WZH (1000 Ft AGL) | -1.00 | 0.67 | -1.00 | -1.00 |
Support For Supercells: S-strong, O-OK, M-Marginal, P-Poor
VGP - Values greater than 0.2 suggest an increasing possibility of tornadic storms
STP - Values greater than 1 suggest an increasing possibility of tornadic storms
SCP - Values greater than 1 suggest an increasing possibility of supercells and
tornadic storms
Craven Sig Severe - Values greater than 20 suggest an increasing possibility of
sig severe storms
| LATEST RUC MODEL RUN FOR KNKX | ||||||||||
| TIME (Z) | 1900 | 2000 | 2100 | 2200 | 2300 | 0000 | 0100 | 0200 | 0300 | 0400 |
| SHOWALTER INDEX | 10.19 | 10.01 | 8.40 | 8.37 | 8.08 | 7.89 | 8.27 | 9.05 | 9.61 | 10.11 |
| LIFTED INDEX | 8.79 | 7.84 | 6.42 | 5.17 | 5.59 | 5.80 | 6.38 | 7.95 | 8.95 | 10.08 |
| SWEAT INDEX | 45.70 | 45.73 | 52.80 | 54.66 | 54.79 | 52.63 | 50.08 | 43.75 | 38.08 | 36.80 |
| K INDEX | -14.54 | -12.52 | -8.77 | -10.68 | -12.28 | -14.54 | -18.57 | -22.71 | -25.45 | -26.77 |
| TOTALS TOTAL INDEX | 29.99 | 31.97 | 36.05 | 35.38 | 35.51 | 36.47 | 35.80 | 33.26 | 31.15 | 29.95 |
| LCL HEIGHT (Ft) | 9152 | 11204 | 9979 | 7730 | 6601 | 5905 | 5445 | 4232 | 3323 | 3453 |
| LCL PRESSURE | 705.48 | 651.46 | 683.06 | 746.44 | 781.59 | 804.71 | 820.68 | 866.16 | 904.34 | 898.63 |
| LCL TEMP (in C) | -3.41 | -7.22 | -3.47 | 1.55 | 3.1199999999999 | 4.23 | 5.02 | 6.96 | 8.46 | 7.32 |
| PRECIP WATER (in) | 0.32 | 0.32 | 0.36 | 0.39 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.37 | 0.34 | 0.32 | 0.31 |
| CAPE | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| CINS | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EQ LEVEL (Ft) | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| LFC (Ft) | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BULK RICHARDSON | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| STORM REL HEL (m/s) | 57.00 | 6.50 | -48.00 | -83.60 | -78.20 | -58.70 | -61.30 | -86.10 | -66.90 | -32.50 |
| STORM MOTION | 11 at 20 | 6 at 22 | 2 at 22 | 3 at 23 | 6 at 22 | 5 at 22 | 8 at 22 | 13 at 21 | 16 at 21 | 15 at 20 |
| ENERGY HELICITY(EHI) | 0 | 0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 |
| 1 KM SHEAR | 8 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 18 | 18 | 20 | 20 | 16 | 12 |
| 3 KM SHEAR | 11 | 18 | 17 | 18 | 16 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 10 | 7 |
| 6 KM SHEAR | 38 | 34 | 31 | 27 | 24 | 24 | 32 | 31 | 29 | 28 |
| UP VERT VELOCITY (m/s) | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WBZ (Ft) | 7120 | 6859 | 6856 | 8387 | 8242 | 7808 | 7123 | 6768 | 6856 | 7362 |
| CRAVEN SIG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SCP | 0 | 0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 | -0 |
| LATEST UPPER AIR SOUNDING REPORT |
| Station: KNKX Date: 1200Z 20 MAR 10 | ||
| 1000-500 Mb Thickness (Ft) | 18427.04 | |
| Freezing Level (Ft) | 11802 | |
| Wet Bulb Zero (Ft) | 8155 | BEST FOR LARGE HAIL |
| Precipitable Water (Inches) | 0.49 | |
| Sfc-500 Mean Rel Humidity (%) | 24 | |
| 700-500 Lapse Rate (C/km) | 7.17 | |
| ThetaE Index (C/km) | 3.24 | |
| Lifted Index (C) | 7.86 | STABLE ATMOSPHERE |
| Showalter Index (C) | 7.65 | NO THUNDERSTORMS |
| Total Totals Index | 37.6 | NO CONVECTION LIKELY |
| K Index | 2.1 | NO THUNDERSTORMS |
| Sweat Index | 51 | NO SEVERE WEATHER |
| Energy Index | 1.56 | NO ACTIVITY EXPECTED |
| CAPE (B+) (J/Kg) | 39.68 | |
| NCAPE (B+) (J/Kg) | NA | |
| Max Up Vert Vel (m/s) | 8.91 | |
| CIN (B-) (J/Kg) | 58690.26 | |
| CAP Strength (C) | 9.27 | STRONG CAP |
| Lift Cond Lev (LCL) (Ft) | 7311.65 | |
| Lev Free Conv (LFC) (Ft) | -9999 | |
| Equalibrium Lev (EL) (Ft) | -9999 | |
| Storm Direction | 353.8 at 13.0 knts | |
| Shear (0-3Km) (10-3/s) | 4.7 | |
| Storm Rel Helicity (0-3Km) | -0.5 | NONE TO VERY WEAK HELICAL FLOW |
| Storm Rel Vorticity (0-3Km) | -0.7 | |
| Energy-Hel Index | 0 | SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES UNLIKELY |
| BULK Richardson | 0.86 | INSUFFICIENT SHEAR AND/OR CAPE VALUES |
| BULK Shear (m/s) | 46.16 | |
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ESPERANZA WEATHER CENTER
www.espwxctr.com