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Forecast Discussion for San Diego, CA
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000 FXUS66 KSGX 090424 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 923 PM PDT Thu Jun 8 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Weather on Friday will be similar to today, ahead of an approaching low pressure system for the weekend. The low will bring additional cooling, a deeper marine layer and scattered showers Saturday night and Sunday. Westerly winds will be gusty over the mountains and deserts, where isolated thunderstorms will be possible Sunday afternoon. Gradual warming sets in next week, but low pressure aloft will keep night and morning clouds in the mix, and the days will be cooler than average. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... Skies cleared well west over the coastal waters today, but are slowly filling back in this evening. The 00Z Miramar sounding had the marine inversion base at 3K FT MSL. This means the marine layer is still deep enough to develop well inland across the valleys by morning. Moderate onshore sfc pressure gradients continue to the deserts and are supporting some wind gusts of 40-50 MPH through and below the San Gorgonio Pass. A minor change was made to the forecast for tomorrow to allow partly cloudy skies over coastal areas. Some minor updates have been added to the grids this evening for less clouds tomorrow afternoon, and some patchy drizzle along the coast on Saturday morning. From previous discussion... Today will likely be the warmest day of the week for many locations west of the mountains before another low pressure system arrives this weekend. The marine layer will deepen as the low pressure system arrives, and may be deep enough to support areas of drizzle Friday night into Saturday. Cooling also spreads inland this weekend with many inland valley locations experiencing highs nearly 15 to 20 degrees cooler than normal. The weekend system will also bring chances for showers and thunderstorms, mainly from the San Bernardino Mountains into the High Deserts, for late Saturday into Sunday in addition to more chances for drizzle at the coast as the marine layer rapidly deepens. Ensemble PWAT guidance currently ranges from 0.75-1.00 inch near the coast to perhaps upwards of 0.50-0.60 inch in the mountains by Sunday. Accordingly, there is still a fair amount of spread in model QPF solutions for this weekend, with about one half of EPS members showing 0.10” or less for Big Bear, and a handful of members showing notably wetter solutions of 0.50” or more. Greater confidence exists in the drizzle potential with nearly all EPS members on board, all showing roughly 0.10” of precipitation for Saturday and Sunday. There will also be persistent rounds of increasing onshore winds, especially over the mountains and deserts each afternoon and evening today through the weekend. Saturday looks to have the strongest wind activity as the 500mb low approaches, with gusts of 50-60 mph possible over ridgelines, through wind-prone canyons, and below passes. Slightly weaker, but still elevated winds will occur today and Friday afternoon as well as on Sunday. The 500mb low and trough look to weaken for next week, leading to a warming trend and a shallower marine layer each day. It will remain deep enough to still support night and morning low clouds all the way onto the coastal mountain slopes early next week, but becoming more confined to the coasts and valleys by the middle portions of next week. Temperatures will also steadily warm by about 2 to 5 degrees each day next week. && .AVIATION... 090300Z...Coast/Valleys...SCT-BKN020-030 through 07Z...then becoming OVC020-030 through 14Z Friday with tops 3500 ft. Valley clearing Friday 17Z-20Z. Coastal clearing 20Z-24Z. Mountains/Deserts...SCT250 tonight and Friday. WNW wind gusts 25-40 kt through 10z Fri. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Monday. && .BEACHES... A fading south swell will generate 2-4 ft surf Friday with sets to 5 ft at the favored southwest-facing beach breaks. This downward trend in surf and swell continues Saturday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...10/Adams AVIATION/MARINE...Moede |
Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS San Diego, CA (SGX) Office Forecast Discussions.
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