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Forecast Discussion for San Diego, CA
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081 FXUS66 KSGX 192022 AFDSGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Diego CA 122 PM PDT Sat Jul 19 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Chances for mountain thunderstorms will occur this afternoon, becoming more minor by Sunday. A troughing pattern will take over into the end of the week, bringing temperatures near average at the coast and below average for inland areas. The marine layer will persist through this period, bringing low clouds and fog west of the mountains each night and morning. && .DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES... The marine layer presence continues to hold clouds along the beaches, though the inversion continues to weaken, which will help partially clear the area later this afternoon. Cumulus clouds continue to build over higher terrain but no shower activity has been detected yet. These clouds may build enough to generate showers and weak thunderstorms this afternoon as a weak low over the area helps funnel in monsoonal moisture. The low will stay rather stationary but weaken further into tomorrow. Models indicate the atmosphere continuing to dry out though some hi-res models try to develop more precipitation across the mountain areas by Sunday afternoon. Instability also lessens, so have kept chances for storms near 10 percent during this time. Other areas will continue to see a nice weekend with highs near to slightly below average. By Monday, a deeper trough will move into the Pacific Northwest and Northern California, which will help to bring in cooler and drier flow aloft. This will aid in pushing monsoonal moisture out of California and further into AZ/NM. Tranquil weather will be the name of the game next week as models indicate the trough sticking around for awhile. This will bring temperatures near average at the coast while inland areas see temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Even highs will stay a few degrees below normal for parts of the Coachella Valley with highs near 105 degrees. The pattern will bring onshore winds to the mountains each day with gusts 20-30 across the deserts, locally near 40 mph in the passes. The marine layer will bring a daily dose of low clouds and fog each morning west of the mountains with clearer skies in the afternoons. Ensemble models begin to diverge on solutions for next weekend, with some continuing the troughing pattern while others provide a warmer solution with a weak ridge forming over the Southwest. && .AVIATION... 192030Z....Coast/Valleys...Only partial or intermittent clearing is expected at the immediate coast this afternoon with low clouds based at around 1500 feet MSL. These will push inland after 00Z, moving into parts of inland valleys tonight. Tops around 2400 feet MSL and local vis 2-5SM over higher inland terrain where clouds reach. Scatter out Sunday will be around 17-20Z. Mountains/Deserts...ISO TSRA (15-20% probability) through 01Z over mountains, with CU/CB bases 8000-10000 feet MSL, tops to 35000 feet. Erratic wind gusts, strong up/downdrafts, and VIS restrictions possible with any TSRA. Skies clearing after 00Z. Cumulus buildups Sunday 19-23Z based around 9000 feet MSL, but no TSRA expected. && .MARINE... No hazardous marine weather expected through Thursday. && .SKYWARN... Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions. && .SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ PUBLIC...APR AVIATION/MARINE...MM |
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NWS San Diego, CA (SGX) Office Forecast Discussions.
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