San Diego Forecast Discussion
264
FXUS66 KSGX 061155
AFDSGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
355 AM PST Thu Feb 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler and cloudier conditions with periods of showers are
expected through Friday. The most widespread rainfall is expected
to spread southward across the area late tonight and Friday.
Drier for the weekend into early next week. Daytime temperatures
will be a little warmer for the weekend, then cooler for early
next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
.SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
Since late afternoon on Wednesday, there has been additional
rainfall of a few hundredths to around one-quarter inch on the
coastal slopes of the San Bernardino County mountains. For the
coast and valleys, rainfall from light rain and drizzle has been a
few hundredths of an inch or less.
Mostly light rainfall will diminish during this morning, but may
linger near the coastal slopes of the mountains through the
afternoon. A round of more widespread rainfall is expected to
reach Orange and southwestern San Bernardino Counties this
evening, then spread southward late tonight and Friday. Rain
could linger near the mountains into Friday night. The snow level
will rise to 7500 to 8000 feet today, then lower to 5500 to 6000
feet Friday night as the precipitation ends.
Through Friday night, across northern Orange County and
southwestern San Bernardino Counties, rainfall is expected to
range from one-quarter to one-third inch near the coast to 1 to 2
inches on the coastal slopes of the San Bernardino County
mountains with isolated rainfall to around 3 inches. For the
eastern San Gabriel Mountains, the NBM probability for one inch
or more of rainfall is around 75 percent, 55 percent for 2 inches
or more, and 30 percent for 3 inches or more.
For northern San Diego County, rainfall is expected to range from
around one-quarter inch near the coast to one-half to locally
one inch in the mountains with one-tenth inch or less across
southern San Diego County.
High temperatures will be cooler for today and Friday, mostly in
the upper 50s to mid 60s for the coast and valleys, then a few
degrees warmer for Saturday, mostly in the 60s for the coast and
valleys and in the mid 70s for the lower deserts.
There will also be periods of gusty southwest to west winds in the
mountains and deserts through Friday evening with the stronger
gusts mostly 45 to 55 mph.
&&
.LONG TERM (Sunday through Wednesday)...
Drier weather is expected through Tuesday with Monday and Tuesday
a little cooler. There are greater chances for potentially more
significant precipitation during the latter half of next week, but
with lower confidence in the details for both timing and amounts.
ECMWF ensemble output for Big Bear for the latter half of next
week has uncalibrated rainfall/liquid-equivalent from little or no
precipitation to more than 7 inches with about 15 percent of
members having 3 inches or more.
&&
.AVIATION...
061030Z...Coast/Valleys/Mountains(coastal slopes)... Variable clouds
with bases 300-3000 feet MSL and tops to 6000 feet will continue
through 18Z, along with terrain obscurations and isold -SHRA. Local
VIS 1-5SM in BR, especially over higher terrain. Partial and
intermittent clearing will occur after 18Z, but local CIGs 2000-3000
feet MSL will continue. Greater yet not uniform coverage of these
clouds with variable bases expected after 00Z with isold -SHRA.
Mountains(desert slopes)/Deserts...Mostly clear skies will continue
today and tonight. Areas of southwest or west winds gusting 30-45 kt
will occur through this evening, with moderate up/downdrafts.
&&
.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Monday.
&&
.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...17
AVIATION/MARINE...MM
NWS SGX Office Area Forecast Discussion